B2B: Escorting

Another "Back to Basics", today we're looking at the concept of "Escorting".

Units that are Falling Back are automatically removed from the table if any model in the unit hits the board edge or at the end of the game. This makes them easy Kill Points and unable to Score or Contest objectives. Also, a unit that is Falling Back counts as having moved that turn and can't use Heavy Weapons, even if they Regroup. There's exceptions, of course, such as Space Marines that Regroup using "And They Shall Know No Fear" and/or anyone able to move and fire Heavy Weapons. Still, these are categorically "Good Things" when it is happening to your opponent. So once you've gone through the laborious process of breaking an enemy unit, don't you want them to stay broken?

Units can take a Regroup check at the beginning of the unit's Movement phase. If they pass the test, they regroup and hang around. If they fail, they run another 2d6" or more. Simple enough. The problem here is that you're relying on luck of the dice when odds are probably in their favor. Many units, such as Space Marines, don't even have to test and automatically Regroup. But there's a simple solution: never allow them to test in the first place!

There's three criteria that must be met before a unit can test to Regroup. If any one is failed, the unit keeps on running. These are:
1. The unit is in coherency. This one is probably the most uncommon reason for a Regroup to fail. Not only will smart opponents remove casualties or move models in an order so that this doesn't happen, but many people naturally bias the movement angles and/or distance moved to keep the unit in coherency. As you've already Broken one of their units, getting picky about this with an opponent is a sure way to kill the fun of their game. There are certainly ways to create this occurrence with some really tricky tactical use of another unit, for an opponent to get unlucky on a unit with weird wound allocation, or even for them to make a stupid mistake when moving their models. But these aren't occurrences I'd suggest relying on.
2. The unit is at or above half strength. Just killed off 1/2 those guys and made them run? Great! You can ignore them now as they'll keep running. Well, unless they're Eldar with an Avatar near, IG with Orders, Marines with "And They Shall Know No Fear"... the list just goes on and on. Almost every Codex has some way of getting around this requirement or won't break in the first place. So be aware of what your opponent's army can do before you rely on this one.
3. There's no enemy unit(s) within 6". This is the key to Escorting and the most common reason for a Regroup to be skipped. Why? Because it is a factor that YOU can control. As long as there's an enemy within 6", even the bravest Space Marine will keep "Advancing to the Rear".

As with all things, there's a catch. I've been asked "Units that are Falling Back can still shoot! Why would I want my guys to Escort and get shot up?" It comes down to one thing: Tactical Opportunity-Cost. You need to honestly assess the amount of damage that unit will cause to your forces before they are removed from the table. Also look at secondary factors like if pursuing them will put your unit out of position, open to other fire or otherwise at a disadvantage.
Then compare that to the amount of damage the enemy unit would be able to cause if allowed to regroup. Given that the unit will be under your opponent's control, looking to cause maximum havoc, and able to Score or Contest objectives? The majority of the time you will want to keep them running.

But wait! There's ways you can minimize the amount of headache the broken unit causes you. My personal favorite? Don't make Escorting your primary objective. Instead, look to accomplish another tactical objective AND Escort the enemy. For example, this can include charging other enemy units (this usually protects you as the Broken unit cannot shoot into CC), securing a mission objective, shooting up another target, Screening, or even just annoying your opponent in hopes that it causes them to make a mistake. How can you do this? Here's an example where some Genestealers have found themselves in charge range of the Red Squad of Space Marines... and then charge on in.The Marines killed one Genestealer but lost three of their number, fail Morale and Fall Back, aren't caught on a Sweeping Advance, and move 9".So what do you do now? I've seen many players just move their entire unit back into the ruins and spread out to avoid enemy Blast markers. But is this really worth it? Those Marines are probably just going to regroup, walk back up and shoot you anyways. They're also going to get extra attacks if they opt to charge. Worse yet, your opponent might not play your game and have the unit wander off to support somewhere else! So why not move up a few guys and keep them running? The majority of the squad is still in cover and you've lost nothing tactically by moving up. Yes the unit is going to get shot by both squads, but they were going to be shot anyways. Now when the Red Squad checks for Regroup, there's enemy units within 6" again and they will Fall Back. This can potentially put the Red Squad out of Rapid Fire range, their move direction isn't optional, and they won't be able to assault!But that's not the end of it... say the Red Squad only falls Back another 6" on their turn. This puts them out of your unit's range, so they will Regroup on their next turn. So why not move in such a way that you prevent this?Then when you charge, you will have models within 6" even if the combat is a press. On your opponent's turn, that squad will hit the edge of the board and be out of the game.

Now remember, these Fall Back moves (and Regroup checks) happen at the start of the owning player's Movement Phase. The average Fall Back distance is going to be 7". With a 6" move and the option to Run or Assault, a unit should normally have no problems keeping up with a fleeing enemy and forcing them off the board.

UPDATE: sonsoftaurus brings up an excellent point that Transport vehicles are a great unit to use for this purpose. They are fast enough to keep up, can Tank Shock to cause extra Fall Backs, and might as well be doing something anyways. It's a great use of a Rhino or other vehicle that's hanging around.
ChimeraHiveMind also notes a very important side effect of Falling Back: "Troops who are falling back automatically fail all Morale checks, except those to regroup." Subsequent Morale checks from Shooting, Tank Shock, Psychic Powers or otherwise can cause the unit to execute additional Fall Back moves. This can be used to push a unit multiple times in the same turn and cause them to quit the field even sooner. Learn this, know it, love it.

Cheers and hope you've learned something! For my part, it was so difficult to write this entire thing and not make any "Sisters of Battle Escort Service" jokes... "Get thee to a nunnery!" Heh.

***Images from Motor Trend, July 1990 and Monty Python's Holy Grail. Used without permission and will be removed upon request.***

B2B: Flamers

Hello folks! Today we're going to talk about some basics of the Flamer, how to minimize getting hit by them, and how to maximize their effect.

The joy and sorrow of Flamer weapons is that they base their hits on the number of enemy models covered by the Flamer Template. No to-hit rolls, no partials, no cover saves, and all "I love the smell of napalm in the morning!" The downside is that the enemy should be able to look at your list, see you have flamers and adjust their battle plan accordingly.

A few simple facts pertinent to Flamer spread:
1. A unit cannot move closer than 1" away from the enemy without being locked in CC.
2. 1" = 25.4mm, a standard base is 25mm, and .4mm is too small a difference to easily distinguish. Thus a normal base is 1" across for all intents.
3. Unit coherency is measured 2" from base to base.
4. The flamer template is 8.25" long and just over 2.25" at the widest.
5. The template always covers a set area, so the total number of hits can be reduced by simply spreading out.

So how can you minimize their effect on your own Troops? Well, it's always better to not get shot at all and an 8.25" range isn't much. But when it inevitably happens, spacing out your unit can drastically reduce the flamer's amount of coverage. As shown to the right, 1" away + 1" base + 2" coherency + 1" base + 2" coherency + 1" base = 8". In theory, a conga line formation could reduce a flamer weapon to a maximum of 3 hits. Of course "in theory" means about as much to an actual game as a frictionless vacuum does to applied physics. Terrain, additional units, inaccuracies of movement & measurement, inability of attackers to be perfectly positioned and many other minutiae will both increase and/or reduce the number of hits that occur.

On the other side of the coin, a flamer correctly placed over guys packed in like sardines can hit about 19 models. A range of 3-19 is quite the spread... how can you go about getting the most flame for your buck? There's six main times an opponent will bunch up nicely for flamers:
1. They make a mistake, such as forgetting you have flamers.
2. They're crowding into a small piece of terrain.
3. They're clumping to surround an objective.
4. Deploying from a Transport.
5. After Close Combat.
6. After a Tank Shock.
I'm never willing to rely on the first but happy to exploit it when it does. The second and third also rely on your opponent and are commonly related to the first. But the other three are items you can be proactive with...

Deploying from a Transport: One of the best times to hit opponents with flamers is right after they deploy from a Transport. Unfortunately, your opponent probably knows this too. A voluntary disembark on their part usually involves a subsequent move away, a mistake, over-confidence, or a limitation of their army build (such as DropPod "Drop & Shoot" armies.) It's good to recognize these and use them if they come up, but they're not reliable items.
In turn, there is also involuntary disembarkation, aka killing their transport. There's a few snags to relying on this method too. The main conundrum is that movement is done before shooting or assault, yet these are your most likely phases to kill a tank. So your flamer units will have move into position before you kill the tank and the enemy disembarks. This makes it difficult to predict where they will go, especially as a Destroyed-Wrecked result has a different deployment area from Destroyed-Explodes. Having your guys in position also allows the enemy to deploy away from the flamers and in formations to minimize their effect. Flamers are also a short range weapon and need to be close to the target. Being close means a chance of hurting your own unit if you get a result of Destroyed-Explodes. Last, if your dice run sour and you fail to kill the tank, your guys are exposed for retaliatory fire and assault from the unit in the tank. While moving your guys and hoping to pop their tank can work in a pinch, it is not a sound enough tactic to base strategy on.

Close Combat: The nice thing about Close Combat is that everyone involved gets up close and friendly. The bad thing is that you can't shoot into CC. So you need a way to end the CC but keep the enemy bunched up.
One option is to sacrifice a disposable unit. Simply let the enemy charge, have the speed bump die, then hit the enemy unit. Another option is the use of "Hit & Run". The availability of this is highly army dependent and it isn't always a sure thing. The problem with both of these is that they allow the opponent to make a Consolidate move. Though random, a decent roll can go a long ways to softening Flamer hits.
But there's an option that's even better: let them assault a Vehicle. Units cannot perform a Consolidate move after, even if the vehicle was destroyed. On your turn, the Vehicle (if able) can move away from the combat without penalty and units inside or near can move in to maximize those flamers.
Here's an example of this from an Ard Boyz game:Admittedly, my opponent made a mistake is charging the Wave Serpent right in front of the Wraithlord. So how about a more realistic example:Here we have examples of a Space Wolf Rhino getting charged by a mob of Orks. The top diagram is what to do if the vehicle survives the assault and the bottom is if it does not. A large part of making this work is to not over-extend your move. It is much more risky when the enemy can block the tank's exits. You want to make sure there's still enough room for the unit to disembark. It is also good policy to leave some room for the vehicle to exit. This isn't critical though as the vehicle might be Destroyed, can Tank Shock their way clear, and/or can provide cover for your unit after the enemy is annihilated.
Also note panels 5&6 for another neat tip. Infantry models may place the template "so that [the template's] narrow end is touching the base of the model firing." Note that this is different from "the shortest distance" or anything. The Flamer can be measure from any point on the edge of the base that does not cause it to cross the base or a friendly model. In Panel 5, he is turned to face the opponent as people are naturally wont to do and the template is placed at the closest point. This causes the wide part of the template to extend past the enemy and covers 9 models at most. But in Panel 6, the template is pulled back to measure off the side of his base. The model has been turned in place to change where his weapon is, to make this angle more obvious. This aspect change increases the hit count to 12. Simple things like this are critical to getting the most out of of your Flamers. (Note that this is literally true for Vehicles as the template is measure from their actual barrel tip.)

After a Tank Shock: One of my main armies is mech-Eldar and Tank Shock is one of my favorite tools. They have highly mobile and durable tanks in a force that needs to maximize every aspect of their attack to succeed. Commonly you see Tank Shock used in objective missions to push enemy units off of an objective. But a lesser known use is to compress the enemy unit to increase your Flamer shots. Simply, even if an enemy unit passes their Morale check, they are still displaced by the mass of the tank. The affected models must move by the shortest distance to clear the tank and must maintain coherency. So if you hit one side of an enemy formation, you can force the models at the edge to compress back into the main part of the squad. Additionally, models inside the tank may deploy as normal AFTER seeing where the enemy moves. This will often increase the number of hits enough to make it worth skipping on assaulting, especially with a non-combat unit like Guardians. Here's a visual:This is a simple example, but it should give you the general idea. Now imagine doing this with a tank on each side... As another variation, you can always Tank Shock with one unit and then flame and assault with a second.
There's also one more fun bit to remember about Tank Shock... Ramming! As mentioned above, enemy units bunch up when deploying from a tank and flamers will get more hits. Because most anti-tank is done after your movement, your opponent has greater ability to react to where your flamers are placed. Yet Ramming happens in the Movement Phase. Thus you have the potential to pop their tank and jump your guys out for maximum carnage. Just be aware that this type of attack relies on a number of random factors and enemy movement. It really is an attack of opportunity rather than a tactic I would rely on regularly using.
UPDATE: And yet another fun thing about Tank Shock: "Death or Glory" attacks are only allowed by a single "model in the vehicle's path". Many players like to place their special weapons and nasty characters either to the center of the squad or stacked to one side. If you Tank Shock an edge of the formation such that those don't have to move, they are not able to perform a DoG attack. This is another of those simple yet critical items that be make all the difference in your Tank Shock.

This is the first in a new series of articles I'm calling "Back to Basics", or B2B for short. Most of my tactics articles have focused on really complex and/or esoteric items. Partly this is because I haven't seen others talking about them. Partly I like complex tactics as they give me a chance to show off. But mostly I'd assumed the majority of players on the internet/blogosphere were experienced players looking for the rarer ideas. In looking around and talking to people, I've since realized there are a lot of newbies looking to up their game and regular players that may have missed some basics. Several times I've dropped a comment about something I consider basic, such as "escorting" or "castling", only to be asked what I'm talking about. So the B2B series is going to focus on basic rules and how they interact with other basics to create the mid-level tactics that are the bread and butter of winning at 40K. Cheers and I hope you enjoy this new style of article.

PS. Go vote on a banner and COMMENT in my "Vote a New Banner" thread. I promised a set of sculpting tolls to a random lucky winner and an LE fig if it hit over 20 comments. Well, we're at 27 now. Depending on how many more I get, even more cool stuff will have to be pulled out...

***Image is from Apocalypse Now and used without permission***

Tactica: Reserves Denial

Yesterday I mentioned "An Autarch's Master Strategist making Reserves Denial more reliable" and Warhammer 39,999 rightfully pointed out that I was talking about something I've never mentioned on here. (Well, except maybe by inference.)

Reserves Denial follows a simple tenet: That which cannot be attacked cannot be killed.

I'd toyed with the idea in 4th edition, but the Reserves special rule was too irregular to really base a strategy on. It was one of those things that was situational and sometimes annoying, but not reliable.
Then out came 5th edition with Reserves in every basic mission. Reserves was suddenly reliable as more than just a tactic of opportunity. When combined with an Autarch's cumulative +1 on Reserves rolls, you could even base strategy off the idea...
At about the same time, the Space Marines codex had just released with the "new" Drop Pod Assault rules. Eldar have always been better at hitting hard but not really so much for taking a hit. Pods gave Marines a way to hammer Eldar lines up close and personal before the Eldar could whittle them down. There was a lot of debate on how to respond.
I'm sure I wasn't the first to talk about this idea, but I was certainly one of the early birds with this post. Rather than putting all your guys on the board to be slaughterd, why not hide them in Reserves for a couple turns? I called the idea Reserves Denial. Even though an Eldar list geared for this will be the master of this type of play, it can be a viable and even beneficial choice for any army. It's certainly a good tool for a player to have in their repertoire.

The advantages:
1. While in Reserves your units cannot be shot.
2. When everything is in Reserves, your opponent has nothing to deploy based on nor react to.
3. When entering from Reserves, you can react to the enemy deployment as you move onto the table. This allows you to match units to their best targets, concentrate firepower and generally take the initiative in the battle.
4. When entering from Reserves, you have the opportunity to strike before being struck in return. Heck, you might even have a chance to charge on the same turn.
5. It times perfectly with Outflanking forces.

The disadvantages:
1. You have less turns to accomplish your objectives.
2. You have to rely on Reserves rolls. Bad rolls can mean your army enters the board piecemeal.
3. You rely heavily on speed or having an opponent that comes to you.
4. It's usually pretty obvious when your army is geared to do this. There's several ways to counter it, especially by mirroring.

Why are Eldar the best at this?
1. Autarchs. A cumulative +1 on the Reserves roll is nice.*
2. Move & Fire weapons. Few things in the Eldar list cannot move and fire at full effect.
3. Speed. Eldar have Fast Skimmers, Fleet, Jetbikes and many other mobility advantages.
4. Anti-gravitics. It's theoretically possible to run a conga line of units down an entire edge and make someone unable to enter the board from Reserves due to the 'may not move within 1" of an enemy model unless charging' rule. Skimmers, Jetbikes, and Jump Infantry get to ignore this rule and can jump OVER enemy models.
5. Theme. Eldar are often referred to as a "glass hammer" army... that they hit really hard but shatter when hit in return. The background also supports a highly mobile form of warfare. This kind of play really is the Eldar bailiwick.

*A unit's cumulative chance to arrive is:
Normal: 50% Turn 2, 83% Turn 3, 97% Turn 4.
1 Autarch: 66% Turn 2, 94% Turn 3, 99% Turn 4.
2 Autarchs: 83% Turn 2, 97% Turn 3, 100% Turn 4.

***Image courtesy of r7ll's DeviantArt. Go check out his other stuff, it's NICE.***

More Rangers Vs Pathfinders

In my last post I did a cost analysis of the output fire for Rangers against Pathfinders. Master DarkSol then asked for a graph of their ability to resist damage. It's a little "boring" as it is a linear equation in direct proportion.

First, a comparison of casualties caused per wound caused:

Pretty easy to see, a 2+ save is better than a 3+. :-p The math is a simple "((6-x)/6)*n" where x is the save and n is the number of wounding shots.

Then we factor in cost:

Being a base 6 system, we see whole number markers every 6 iterations.
If you chose NOT to Go to Ground, Pathfinders will "save" you 14 points for every 6 wounding hits. But if you do allow for GtG, Rangers will save you an extra 5 on top of that. I guess I could obfuscate values by using proportions, but this is easier to read...

Thanks to GtG, the only time the cost-analysis favors the Pathfinders is when there's a reduction to cover save, such as from Markerlights. All other tables (ignoring cover, CC, etc) favor the Rangers.

DarkSol, this answer your question or did I miss some way to make things more complex?

**Space Hulk update: 6 Genestealers and the Broodlord left to clean**

Rangers vs Pathfinders

"Rangers versus Pathfinders" or "Yet another reason why Rangers are a better choice."

Raptor1313 recently did another stellar review of Eldar Foot Troops choices over here. He covered a great majority of the salient points. But what about damage? How do they compare for math-hammer? So I promised to post my cost analysis. You guys can thank Eriochrome's recent posts for getting me to put these in graph form rather than spreadsheet. I confess, I'm a programmer and the numbers tend to mean more to me than the presentation.

So here's the first run:

The above graph shows you the percent chance of a single shot to cause a wound. It includes to-hit, Rending, Cover... everything.
The Pathfinders have a 1/6th higher chance of doing an AP2 shot. So they slightly outperform the Rangers for damage per shot.

But then we factor in costs...:

And here we see the chance to wound per point. (The actual numbers are chance divided by cost and then times 100 for sake of easy reading.)
Even though the Pathfinders do more damage per shot, Rangers outperform in every single category. Said another way: you'll do more damage with 10 Rangers rather than 8 Pathfinders.

Cheers! (Image blatantly grabbed from GW's site and will be removed if asked.) Now off to swap graphs into my Falcon analysis...

**Space Hulk update: Termies and 4 Genestealers cleaned and assembled.**

Riposte, the Art of the Counter-Attack (More Advanced Vehicle Tactics)

Riposte: -noun
1. General. a quick, sharp return in speech or action; counterstroke.
2. Fencing. a quick thrust given after parrying a lunge.
3. Warhammer 40k. a tactic whereby you crush an opposing force after allowing them to over commit.

The concept? Simple. The execution? Tricky.

There's three major components that go into making this work:
1. Get them to commit to an attack that they can't recover from.
2. Counter or blunt the attack such that it is not crippling to your force.
3. Hit them in return such that their force is crippled or destroyed.

Now while I use Eldar vehicles in the examples, this kind of ploy is viable for pretty much any army out there. To quote the current Space Wolf Codex, "The only way to slay a Fenrisian Wolf [bare-handed] is to wait until the Wolf pounces and leap forward while it is in the air so that the exposed neck and belly can be attacked." I've used this tactic to success with Wolves, Eldar, Marines, Chaos and Tau. Heck, I've even pulled off variants of this with non-mechanized armies, but that's for another day...

Another thing worth stating here is that this is not meant to be an end-all-be-all of tactics. This is just one of many options to put into your tool chest.

Part 1: Get them to over-commit.
Gamers often tend to be young, single men. They're naturally afraid of commitment. They'll want to hedge their bets, explore other options, and play their own games. However, they're also easily distractable, tend not to think beyond the immediate moment and have a weakness for honey-pots.
So how do you distract them? Well, my wife can simply lean over the table, pose, and heave a bit to cause the IQ across the table drop. I don't have the same *ahem* attributes. I also want to be a good sport, so I have to rely on distracting them via gameplay. One of the simplest and easiest ways I've found is a "bait" unit.
What makes a good bait unit? It's relative. There needs to be a reason for your opponent to attack the unit in the way you desire. You'll need to get into their head a bit and figure out what will bait them... Is it enough to just present any old target? Do they dislike a particular unit disproportionately? Are they after your Scoring units?
Additionally, you will want to have a backup plan. It can and will happen that people won't take your bait, no matter how tempting the bait. Accept this, plan for it, and adjust your strategy to suit.
But the best "bait"? One where the choice to take it or avoid it doesn't matter. A crude example of this would be a unit of Fire Dragons, in a Fortuned and Moving Fast Wave Serpent, 16" from a Land Raider full of Terminators. The Terminators have a choice of getting out and attacking, or risking being destroyed inside their tank when the Dragons attack. Typically, engineering this kind of fait accompli will require multiple units working in tandem, conducive terrain and maybe a little luck... but it's worth it if you can pull it off.

Part 2: Blunt the attack.
Truth be told, this is really the second half of choosing the right bait.
When choosing your bait, you must accept that the unit is going to die. There's no room for "maybe it might get lucky" or "maybe it might live". If you're going to risk it, you need to make sure that your strategical plan can afford to have it die. If it lives? Great! You have an extra unit to go out and do damage with. If it dies? Fine, it's what was expected. Always plan for the worst and then work with the actual.
Now any type of unit can work as your bait... but my favorite is a Transport vehicle. Here's why:
a. Tanks are more mobile than normal infantry. This allows them to get into position faster and
b. A unit being Transported is not damaged unless the vehicle explodes or is completely surrounded when wrecked. Many players seem to think a Vehicle Wrecked causes them to take damage and that blocking the hatch is enough... but this isn't true in 5th edition. Have them re-read the Damage to Transported Units section.
c. Enemies cannot consolidate after close combat with a vehicle. This leaves them nice and clumped up for applying Template weapons and being close enough to charge.
d. Live tanks = mobile cover. By nature, a bait unit is typically up close and personal to the enemy. This means they will often block LOS or confer a cover save to your units behind them.
e. Dead tanks = cover and difficult terrain. When a tank is taken out, you have the majority control of where they deploy. If all your opponent's shooting is done and there's no assaulters near, it might be worth getting a few extra inches by deploying in front of the tank. If they held back a bunch of anti-infantry in hopes of popping your tank, you can deploy behind the wreckage to block LOS or get cover saves. If they have an assault unit nearby, you can put the bulk of the tank between you to force Difficult Terrain tests that might blunt or prevent a charge.

Step 3: Cripple them in return.
You've done the hard part of surviving. Now you get to exact your revenge. The usual caveats apply here of using the best tool for the job, maximizing damage, and setting things up for winning the game. It's actually this phase that tends to provide the psychological turning point for a game. Your opponent is often feeling pretty good about having damaged or destroyed a unit or two of yours. Now is when you want to hit them as hard as you can and wipe out as many units as possible. The sudden switch from a feeling of victory to one of defeat can be crushing. I've watched people give up on or even concede games after this, even though they still had the ability to tie or win.

For some practical examples, I've enlisted Vassal again to provide some images with how I approach this with my Eldar. For those of you unfamiliar with Eldar... Wave Serpents are extremely fast, very durable against shooting, and rather durable against close combat. The downsides are that they're not cheap (100+ points), their basic weapons don't put out that much damage, and their upgraded weapons are usually too expensive for the results you get. It's the units inside of them that really pack the punch. This makes the great "bait".
The yellow Serpent is Howling Banshees. (Alnti-troop close combat specialists)
The red Serpent is Fire Dragon. (Anti-tank specialists)
The green tank is Storm Guardians. (Anti-troop shooting that's more effective against packed-in targets thanks to multiple Flamers.)
Images are clickable for larger and better detailed versions.

This first image shows three basic deployments. They were done with an eye to the terrain and with the thought that the Eldar are deploying and going first. Because people will steal the initiative 1 time in 6, most of the deployments aren't right on the line and have some cover. 5:1 odds aren't that bad... don't let an aggressive deployment cost you the game.

This image shows how I might approach certain targets.
In example 1, I'm looking at a Tactical squad supported by two Dreadnaughts. An Assault squad is behind them to provide assault and counter-charge. The first concern here is dropping the two Dreadnaughts as only the Fire Dragons have the ability to drop them reliably. The second is to keep the Assault squad from charging my infantry.
Now if I approached this with the idea of alpha-strike shooting, I'd probably futz around at range for a turn and try to pop the Dreadnaughts on a lucky shot. I'd probably get one Dread and a couple Marines. But the return fire is going to turn my Dragons into a fine red mist.
But by holding off a turn and trying to bait, I can hit with all three units in tandem. The Fire Dragon Serpent is put out front as bait. There's enough room left behind it that the Dragons can bail out if needed. This and the Storm Guardian Serpents form nice, juicy targets that the Dreads and Assault Marines will be hard-pressed to ignore. And if they do ignore them or even try to move away, I'm still close enough to attack. The Banshee Serpent hangs out on the far side of the wall. It could be the point-man or flanker just as easily as these positions would put them closer for enacting a charge. However, in this example I was trying to downplay the threat of the Banshees in hopes that he'd ignore their presence entirely.
And if they don't take the bait and pull back? Unless the tac squad Runs, the Banshees are still close enough to catch them with a reasonable Fleet roll. The Dragons are also close enough to drop one Dread cold while the Serpents could angle for rear-armour shots.

In example 2, there's a full Termie T-Hammer Assault squad in the Raider and a bunch of multi-melta/heavy flamer Speeders behind the building. My first concern here is getting the Termies out of the tank. My second is luring those Speeders out so that my Serpents and Dragons can drop them thanks to squadron rules. Again, the Dragons form the bait, with Storm Serpent as the backup. The hope here is that the Termies will jump out and charge the tanks while the Speeders slide to the left to shoot my tanks. I could then hit the Termies with Storms and Banshees while the Dragons hop over to the Raider and the Serpents drop some Speeders.

In example 3, we have a much more common kind of tournament army. Here we have a squad of Termies in a Land Raiders, but this time they're supported by a Rhino wall and a bunch of Razorbacks. Here my concern is getting the Termies out again, but also breaking or hopping the Rhino wall and hitting the juicy insides. My main hope with this type of deployment is to lure the Termies into a charge. If they do so, my Banshees would be detailed for them while the other elements go after his forces. And if he stays buttoned up? I push forward again, but this time I have a bunch of shooting and assault primed to hit his lines in another turn.

None of these are perfect examples... but I needed something to illustrate my point. I also wanted to use examples that looked feasible to see in a game, rather than obvious set pieces.

Whew, but that was a lot of typing. Maybe I should switch to less extensive topics, like my recent painting. :-p Though I guess if you made it this far, it was probably worth the read. Cheers!

First pic courtesy of a psuedo random GIS... and chosen because it amused me as I'm in it...

Tactica: Vs Outflanking Genestealers

About a month ago, Alex asked me about mech-Eldar tactics for dealing with Outflanking Genestealers... especially versus multiple squads and on 4' wide boards. I promised a reply "next week or so", but it took me a while to come up with a response that I was happy with.

Why? Because there's not really a "good" answer. Here's some options to try:
1. Wait a year and hope the re-do of the Tyranid Codex changes things.
2. Swap armies and demonstrate what a wankery thing this is on 4' boards.
3. Point out that there's no model to represent the Scuttling Biomorph and refuse to play against anything that isn't 100% WYSIWYG.
4. Take a tip from The Godfather and slip a beheaded Genestealer into his bed while he's sleeping.
5. Accept your fate meekly and let them continue to rip open your tanks and add your your flesh to the biomass.
6. Accept that the rules aren't always fair, play the odds and beat him anyways.

I'm not really a fan on 1-5... well, maybe #4... but 6 is really the way to go. So let's establish a few basics:
1. They have a 6" move, d6" Fleet, and then a 6" Charge. This yields an average 15.5" move and threat range up to 18".
2. They have Rending, Initiative 6 and 2 base attacks. Getting assaulted by them hurts.
3. They don't have guns. Seemingly obvious, but crucial to beating this.
3. Genestealers aren't cheap. Typically they'll have Flesh Hooks (Frag Grenades) and Scuttlers (Scout); costing 20 points or more each.
4. Genestealers are Scoring.

Outflanking Genestealers are truly a menace. Lictors make them fairly reliable for coming in on Turn 2. There is a small risk that they'll Outflank to the "wrong" side of the field... but that's only a 33% chance. 2:1 odds favoring them is not a gamble worth taking. But the real kicker is one of timing. By coming in from Reserves, your opponent is able to see where your forces are deployed. He can then deploy them to maximum effect for target, terrain, position and even same-turn charges.

A mechanized Eldar player has a few tricks in their bag to counter this.
1. Reserves Denial. Even without an Autarch this is a good method to steal their thunder. You can deny them any easy deployment, moves or targets. However, the effect pales if you are stuck with the first turn. Your opponent can see your ploy before they deploy, you have to start rolling to enter from Reserves first, and generally they're going to have a better ability to adapt to your play. There's also the typical problem with Reserves Denial: your forces won't enter play until Turn 2+. You'll have less time to kill the enemy and secure objectives.

2. Rely on the table. With a 4' board, Outflanking Stealers can effectively threaten all but a 12" strip down the middle. Sit inside of that and you're immune to their alpha-charge. The width of this strip can also be pushed, since Fleet is a single d6 and the only part of the move that ignores terrain effects. The odds are pretty good for you if you don't stray too far and/or can force the Stealers to advance through terrain.

3. Rely on your tanks. When a Serpent has moved over 6", a typical Stealer is only going to destroy your tank 1/24th (4.2%) of the time. Units inside are only hurt when a Vehicle Explodes (1.4% chance). The Stealers don't get a Consolidate move either. So it's perfectly viable to us a tank to bait a large squad into bunching up. Just make sure your hatch isn't blocked, pass a simple Pinning test, and then watch Destructors evaporate Stealers. And even if the worst happens and a Dakkafex shoots down your tank? You deploy your guys on the opposite side of the tank from the Stealers. Good prior positioning and difficult terrain rolls should keep your guys from getting jumped in the Assault phase.

4. Rely on your mobility. This kinda ties into the three items above... but your tanks can move 24". A 4' board doesn't leave you much room to dash about, but you can certainly play bait & switch. Stuck with the first turn? Deploy your tanks near the edges so they stick the Stealers into Outflank. Then use your Turn 1 moves to jump into that safe strip in the middle. Got a bunch of objectives stacked to one side of the board? Deploy a tank in charge range on the other side to lure his attention. It never fails to amaze me how many players will lose a game because they forget strategy in favor of a tactical kill.

Recommended units: Serpent Council, Serpent Banshees, Fire Storm Guardians, and Serpent of Fury. Foot DA, Wraithlords and Spiders can also help in a pinch.

Hopefully this has given you a few ideas. I think the major points come across, but diagrams can be made if needed. Cheers and thanks for reading. (Sculpting Tutorials will resume once the flu has finished the rounds of the family...)

*Image is courtesy the fine guys at the now defunct MacHall. Check out their new work at Three Panel Soul.

Falcon versus Wave Serpent: The Math

Hey there folks.

So Fritz over at Saim-Hann put out a post wondering which is more survivable, a Falcon or a Serpent. Having done the math-hammer in the past... my answer is that the Falcon's more survivable in a stand-off role while the Serpent's a better assault boat.
Serpents are less likely to be killed by melta, Demolishers and when Moving Fast.
Falcons are equally or more likely to be damaged in other cases, but also more likely to survive the results.

5th edition has really become the heyday of mechanized armies. With this, there's been a subsequent rise in melta too. So my general rule is that Falcons sit in the back and play DAVU tactics while Serpents are used to Transport anything that wants to get close.

This is just a general rule as the math does not include BS to-hit, cover, Fortune, Tank Hunters or other exotic situations. I also don't factor for rear-armour shots; this is both implausible to fairly calculate and I figure you're getting your just desserts if that happens. So all shots are considered to have already hit, the target is in the open, it is against AV12, and the Serpent Field is on. Here's the maths:

Wave Serpent	Shaken	Stunned	Weapon D.	Immobilized	Wrecked	Explodes
S6	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	0.00%	0.00%
S7	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%
S8	13.89%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%
S9	13.89%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%
S10	13.89%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%
S8 Ordnance	13.89%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%
S10 Ordnance	13.89%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%
S10 AP1	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%
S10 AP1 Ord.	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%
S8 AP1	5.56%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%
S8 AP1 Melta	13.89%	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	5.56%

This is the chance per shot for a Wave Serpent to take a certain type of damage.
Or in graphical form:

Wave Serpent	Sum Damage	Dead Norm	Dead SMF
S6	16.67%	0.00%	1.39%
S7	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%
S8	50.00%	11.11%	9.72%
S9	50.00%	11.11%	9.72%
S10	50.00%	11.11%	9.72%
S8 Ordnance	50.00%	11.11%	9.72%
S10 Ordnance	50.00%	11.11%	9.72%
S10 AP1	50.00%	19.44%	13.89%
S10 AP1 Ord.	50.00%	19.44%	13.89%
S8 AP1	50.00%	19.44%	13.89%
S8 AP1 Melta	50.00%	11.11%	9.72%

This is a Serpent's total chance to take damage and risk of being destroyed.

Falcon	Shaken	Stunned	Weapon D.	Immobilized	Wrecked	Explodes
S6	12.50%	2.31%	1.39%	0.46%	0.00%	0.00%
S7	17.59%	6.48%	4.63%	2.78%	1.39%	0.46%
S8	22.69%	10.65%	7.87%	5.09%	2.78%	0.93%
S9	27.78%	14.81%	11.11%	7.41%	4.17%	1.39%
S10	32.87%	18.98%	14.35%	9.72%	5.56%	1.85%
S8 Ordnance	31.56%	16.59%	12.42%	8.26%	4.63%	1.54%
S10 Ordnance	33.41%	23.38%	17.98%	12.58%	7.41%	2.47%
S10 AP1	9.26%	23.61%	18.98%	14.35%	9.72%	7.41%
S10 AP1 Ord.	4.63%	28.78%	23.38%	17.98%	12.58%	9.88%
S8 AP1	9.26%	13.43%	10.65%	7.87%	5.09%	3.70%
S8 AP1 Melta	4.63%	27.08%	21.99%	16.90%	11.81%	9.26%

This is the chance for a Falcon to take a certain type of damage.
In graphical form:

Falcon	Sum Damage	Dead Norm	Dead SMF
S6	16.67%	0.00%	0.23%
S7	33.33%	1.85%	2.32%
S8	50.00%	3.70%	4.40%
S9	66.67%	5.56%	6.48%
S10	83.33%	7.41%	8.57%
S8 Ordnance	75.00%	6.17%	7.22%
S10 Ordnance	97.22%	9.88%	11.23%
S10 AP1	83.33%	17.13%	15.74%
S10 AP1 Ord.	97.22%	22.45%	20.22%
S8 AP1	50.00%	8.80%	8.34%
S8 AP1 Melta	91.67%	21.06%	18.98%

This is the Falcon's total chance to take damage and risk of being destroyed.

Falcon vs Serpent	Shaken	Stunned	Weapon D.	Immobilized	Wrecked	Explodes
S6	1.5	0.83	0.5	0.17	N/A	N/A
S7	1.58	1.17	0.83	0.5	0.5	0.17
S8	1.63	1.28	0.94	0.61	0.5	0.17
S9	2	1.78	1.33	0.89	0.75	0.25
S10	2.37	2.28	1.72	1.17	1	0.33
S8 Ordnance	2.27	1.99	1.49	0.99	0.83	0.28
S10 Ordnance	2.41	2.81	2.16	1.51	1.33	0.44
S10 AP1	1.67	2.83	2.28	1.72	1.17	0.67
S10 AP1 Ord.	0.83	3.45	2.81	2.16	1.51	0.89
S8 AP1	1.67	1.61	1.28	0.94	0.61	0.33
S8 AP1 Melta	0.33	3.25	2.64	2.03	2.13	1.67

This is a risk assessment comparison of the Falcon versus the Serpent, broken down by type of damage.

Falcon vs Serpent	Sum Damage	Dead Norm	Dead SMF
S6	1	N/A	0.17
S7	1	0.33	0.42
S8	1	0.33	0.45
S9	1.33	0.5	0.67
S10	1.67	0.67	0.88
S8 Ordnance	1.5	0.56	0.74
S10 Ordnance	1.94	0.89	1.15
S10 AP1	1.67	0.88	1.13
S10 AP1 Ord.	1.94	1.15	1.46
S8 AP1	1	0.45	0.60
S8 AP1 Melta	1.83	1.9	1.95

The numbers above are a risk assessment of the Falcon vs the Wave Serpent for total chance of damage and being destroyed.

For the risk assessments, the number given is roughly how many times more likely a HoloFalcon is to get a result compared to a Wave Serpent.
A value of 1 means the two tanks are equally likely to get this result.
A value greater than 1 favors the Wave Serpent.
A value less than 1 favors the Falcon.


And here's a side-by side of their survivability based upon movement.

*Image borrowed from the good Master DarkSol's Photobucket.